oldephartte (oldephartte) wrote,

What are the indisputable facts about climate change ?

What are the most indisputable, evidence-based facts about climate change?

John Bruyn
John Bruyn, B.A.Sc Geophysics (1982)

Below is what I have just written for Mike Massen. Hope that will do.:)

The orbital periods of Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune totalling 444 times the mass of Earth are, in round figures, 12, 29.5, 84 and 165 years respectively. Their lap cycles range from 19.85 years for Jupiter and Saturn to 171.4 years for Uranus and Neptune. Additionally, the orbital ratios of Jupiter and Saturn produce a roughly 60-year cycle and the phasing of their perihelia produces a 973-year cycle.

The orbital cycles are clearly recognizable in the global mean temperature anomalies shown below. These include the high-frequency component caused by the Jupiter-Saturn lap cycle with very similar effects to the phasing of the sun and the moon causing high and low tides on Earth twice per day.

The ~20-year J-S cycle begins at 1881/82; the ~60-year cycle starts at the same time. The coolest year of the 20th century was 1909 when Uranus and Neptune were on opposite sides of the sun; Uranus lapped Neptune on the same side of the sun in 1993. What is shown after 2000 I’ll get to later.

This RSS graph you’ve referred me to shows the same for the last 40 years, with orbital effects clearly visible if you know how to recognize these. putting a trend line through these is not going to tell anything.

After studying climate change since 2007 and finding that anthropogenic CO2 emissions were to little to have a climatic effect my interest in astronomy encouraged me to obtain solar system ephemeris from NASA in 2013. Armed with Kepler's and Newton’s Laws I began to examine the phasing of the orbits of Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune. I recognised from Keppler’s 1st and 2nd laws that one can compare the shapes of successive orbits based on differences in their perihelion distances from the sun. Extracting and plotting these from the year 1 - 2099 gave me the results shown here.

Seeing it blew my mind. Not only because the plots showed how these four outer planets interacted gravitationally to change the shapes of each other’s orbits, during colder times on Earth the amplitudes in Jupiter’s orbits were the greatest and during warmer times they were the lowest. This turns out to be a 973-year cycle that matches the RWP, the MWP, and what I call the current IWP. Saturn’s orbits to the opposite. The orbits of Uranus and Neptune follow a similar pattern but much further apart.

The next step was to stretch the plots to see what was happening in greater detail.

This plot shows how Jupiter’s orbits kind of rollover due to Saturn’s orbits. Their masses ate 318 E-mass for Jupiter vs 95 E-mass for Saturn. Earth’s temperatures peak inversely to Saturn’s perihelion distances. The question is how it all happens.

Here is my further plot of the zonal temperature anomalies obtained from NASA and plotted in the same frame to get the same vertical stretch and separated by + and -1.0 to be able to tell the difference. The above GLOTI was plotted at the same scale about the zero line.

The plots show that most of the ‘climate change’ is taking place at the poles, not where most of humanity lives, closer to the equator and where most of the CO2 emissions are. And the Arctic and Antarctic plots give clear evidence of a cycle that conforms to the 84-year orbital period of Uranus, with opposite effects. Anthropogenic CO2 emissions cannot do that. 1930 had the coldest time in Antartica, which was one of the years that Earth missed out on lapping Jupiter.

Anomalously, there is a consistent rising trend since about 1968 in all traces except the Southern Ocean and Antarctica. The trend must be artificial because CO2 cannot radiate back to the surface from which the LIR comes to back warm it and, surface LIR declines with latitude. It shows that the continuing rising trend relates to the introduction and processing of satellite data.

Next, I examined whether the time of the year that Earth laps one of the outer planets had something to do with it. For that, I gave each week a value between 0 and 13, starting with the equinoxes on 0 and ending with the solstices on 12 or 13, which, currently are about one week before perihelion to aphelion.

The colours are the same as before, Jupiter in Red, Saturn in green, Uranus in purple, and Neptune in blue. To get rid of any fake influences I combined that with the difference between the Arctic and Antarctic plot values. It shows quite clearly that the phasing of Earth’s orbits

This shows quite clearly that Earth’s temperatures are fully controlled by the solar system and that radiative forcing by GHGs is utter nonsense. The plot shows that the mechanism for change is variation in Earth’s vertical motion of 13 solar diameters above and below to the plane of the solar equator each year.

The system is complex, but my guess is that gyroscopic effects caused by Jupiter and Saturn varying Earth’s orbital speed and the speed of its rotation through conservation of angular momentum play an important role.

This LOD graph from 1962–2018 from Wikipedia shows inverse correlation with temperatures and with Saturn’s perihelion distances. If you want to check out the alignments you can download the Solar Simulator 2 free of charge.

Tags: climate, jupiter-saturn lap cycles
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