TESTING THE MAJOR HYPOTHESIS IN CLIMATE MODELS
John Christy and I published a paper in Earth and Space Science, a publication of the American Geophysical Union:
- McKitrick, Ross R and John Christy (2018) A Test of the Tropical 200-300mb Warming Rate in Climate Models. Earch and Space Science doi: 10.1029/2018EA000401. Data/code archive here.
There has been a lot of discussion about the relative lack of observed warming in the tropical troposphere compared to model projections. We confirm the mismatch using three 60-year weather balloon records. We also outline four criteria for a valid test of the major component of interest in climate models, namely the moist thermodynamics in the troposphere that generates amplified global warming in response to rising greenhouse gases. The criteria are measurability, specificity, independence and uniqueness. The 200-300mb layer in the tropics satisfies all four, pretty much uniquely in the climate system, making it very suitable as a test target. The results clearly show that models misrepresent a process fundamental to their usability for studying the climate impacts of greenhouse gases.
The Search for Warming in Global Temperatures: Data, Methods and Unresolved Questions
The ACORN series of the
Bureau of Meteorology
includes 112 temperature
New “ACORN 2″ adjustments,
that the Australian Bureau
of Meteorology quietly released,
claim the coldest mornings
back in 1910 were even colder
than anyone measured at the time !
This is the second large batch
of "adjustments" in six years,
increasing global warming by 23%,
from the "adjustments" alone.
About one third
of the warming
of the Australia
since 1910 is due to
to the raw data.
Here are some direct links to help you navigate through the article 'El Nino - Of Droughts and Flooding Rains'.
- The Hungry Years
- Sea Surface Temperatures and the Climate
- Walker Circulation
- How does El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affect Australia?
- How do we use ENSO to forecast Australian climate?
- The 1997 El Niño
- What will happen now?
- How has our understanding of the impact of El Niño changed?
- What about the greenhouse effect?