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In 2016 67%  of meteorologists said that humans have caused most or all climate change and The Guardian headlined that there was a Growing Consensus among Meteorologists. In 2017 that fell to only 49%. The Guardian said nothing.

In 2016 29% of  meteorologists thought climate change was largely or entirely man-made, but that fell to only 15% this year.

Figure how this result fits with the idea of the overwhelming evidence and 97% consensus. Which group on the planet after climate scientists should be the second profession to “get it” — how about  meteorologists?

So either:

1. meteorologists are really stupid, or

2. meteorologists know how hard it is to predict the climate.



From Comments


TdeF


I wonder how
many people including meteorologists would consider Global Warming, now
Climate change was man made if it was known that the 50% CO2 increase in
the last 120 years is natural?

It is amazing that this is not something anyone debates. Even people
who dispute man made Global Warming always start by stating explicitly
or implicitly that mankind has increased CO2 and CO2 is a greenhouse
gas. They also implicitly accept that CO2 emitted stays in the
atmosphere for a very long time. This is despite the fact that it is
not true. The lifespan of CO2 was thought to be a few years in the
1950s. We now know that it is 14 years but still the IPCC declares the
half life to be 80 years.

So I wonder how many people would accept man is changing the
atmosphere if this was better known. Without the premise of man made
CO2 rise, there is no argument. Whether CO2 is a significant Greenhouse
gas becomes a moot point.

232



  • TdeF


    It was also
    amazing that not one of Australia’s Climate Commissioners was a
    meteorologist. Chief Climate Commissioner Tim Flannery’s undergraduate
    degree was in English and his PhD in dead kangaroos. Some engineers,
    administrators. Only Will Steffen was a scientist, an industrial
    chemist who clearly did not want to work on cheese, wine, rubber, paint
    or explosives.

    Then 350 full time scientists from the CSIRO, ‘the problem solvers’
    working full time on proving Climate Change, when we already paid for a
    Bureau of Meteorology? Obvious Climate is not about the weather. Of
    course they failed to find Climate Change and went on to researching how
    Australians could cope with what they could not find. Hundreds of
    millions of dollars and hundreds of lives to prove nothing, achieve
    nothing, all at our expense?

    Certainly none of the famous promoters of Climate Change are
    meteorologists and many have no science at all, most notably Al Gore.
    Michael Mann could not get a PhD in physics but finally managed a highly
    contentious one studying tree rings? These are not the best and
    brightest scientists.

    Even the concept of a scientist has been so diluted over the last
    fifty years that questions the very idea of Rational science. Science
    by rote when a real scientist is a sceptic who wants everything proven
    beyond doubt by facts and experiment. Not the new scientist. They
    simply agree with each other and claim consensus is truth and facts are
    irrelevant. Even the 97% number is unscientific nonsense fabricated
    from an emasculated survey where deniers were omitted by claiming they
    were not ‘climate scientists’, a very exclusive bunch.

    The proliferation of science free environmental studies since the
    1980s has created a whole new class of people who call themselves
    climate scientists but have little or no knowledge of basic science.
    The most egregious are the various psychologists who use surveys and
    statistics to prove anything they want. If enough people believe
    something is true, it must be true.

    So what happened to Rational science and the Enlightenment, when
    people were freed from having to conform to Church dictates? We now
    have the Church of Climate Change. Anyone who dares disagree is a
    Denier of the faith and meteorologists are not even to be consulted on
    the climate. Only the high priests know the truth about the climate and
    now 75% of meteorologists are deniers?




How did the cause of climate change become a political question?

It did not become a political question. It is and always has been politically driven.

It a little involved, a lot of history to take into account, I’ll put it in bullet points, and suggest the terms to Google to learn more:


  • The Middle East has always had lots of oil.

  • There were 7 major oil companies that were extracting it, and giving the Middle East countries a pittance for the privilege. The price of oil was below $3 per barrel.

  • The Middle East countries said, “Hey WTF. It’s our oil, if we form a group, we could control the price of oil, extract it ourselves, and keep way more of the money!!”. So they formed the Arab-OPEC Oil Cartel.

  • They formed oil companies, took control of their oil fields, and became the world's masters of oil. A very necessary resource in all industrialized countries. They controlled 85% of the world’s oil production.

  • The Arab-OPEC cartel started jacking the price.

  • The US played a dirty trick. They went off the gold standard. No longer backing their currency with gold on demand. This meant their treasury could print billions extra to buy the oil at higher prices without too much impact on their economy.

  • This pissed off the Arabs. It meant they weren’t really getting as much for their oil. They jacked the price some more.

  • The Arab countries didn’t like Israel. And kept attacking them. The US, UK, Japan, Netherlands and Canada kept defending Israel. The Arab countries did not like that. They decided to give those countries less oil, and, of course, jack the price up even more.

  • The embargoes caused a gas shortage and an energy crisis.

  • OPEC ended the embargoes, jacked the price some more, and kept waving the threat of embargoes over the head of the countries that defended Israel.

  • The price of oil over the past ten years, had now risen from $3 per barrel. To a whopping $42 per barrel.

  • By 1977 the US was importing 16 million barrels per day, at $42 per barrel.

Jimmy Carter, the president, came up with a plan. The US Energy Independence Plan. It called for drastic conservation. Carter wanted to reduce OPEC imports from 16 million bbl per day down to 6 million.

National Energy Program Fact Sheet on the President's Program.

His plan called for investment in alternative energy technology development, and the implementation and embracing by the US public. Wind. Solar. Geothermal. Biofuels. And others.

His plan called for the installation of solar panels on 2.5 million homes.

It called for programs to encourage homeowners to increase energy efficiency. Better insulation, better windows and doors, replacement of old energy hog appliances.

It called for penalties on gas-guzzlers, credits for fuel-efficient cars, and credits for electric vehicles. (even though there were no electric vehicles in production).

It called for smart meters and time of use billing.

It called for new taxes on gas that would increase, unless national consumption decreased. Exactly like a carbon tax.

All of these things in his plan were for one reason, and one reason only. OPEC.

In Carter’s plan, he also innocently put a line that said, “the president will allocate $3 million to research whether there are any impacts on the atmosphere from CO2 emissions”.

In the same and in the following year, Carter bumped up the budget of the EPA by $4.7 billion dollars. A huge increase of 700%. Oddly their staff went up only 25%. Leaving a whole whack of extra cash to spend. Over $4 billion dollars per year, that was not to pay staff.

And then the climate alarm claims began. Global Cooling. Acid Rain. Ozone Hole. Global Warming. Sea Level Rise. Catastrophic Climate Change. Ocean Acidification. Coral Bleaching. Biodiversity Loss. Beepocalypse. Strawmageddon. Extreme Weather Events. Ice Cap Melt. Increased Flooding. Increased Droughts. Impending Global Famine. Basically every type of scare you could imagine. Insect born disease spread. Melting Permafrost Methane Release. Melting Permafrost Ancient Disease Release. Cow Methane Release.

You name it, they claim it.

It is very like the Story of Noah’s Ark, the Ten Plagues of Egypt, and the 4 Horsemen of the Apocalypse rolled into one story.


Climate change has always been a politically driven claim.

Always.

What are the most indisputable, evidence-based facts about climate change?

John Bruyn
John Bruyn, B.A.Sc Geophysics (1982)

Below is what I have just written for Mike Massen. Hope that will do.:)

The orbital periods of Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune totalling 444 times the mass of Earth are, in round figures, 12, 29.5, 84 and 165 years respectively. Their lap cycles range from 19.85 years for Jupiter and Saturn to 171.4 years for Uranus and Neptune. Additionally, the orbital ratios of Jupiter and Saturn produce a roughly 60-year cycle and the phasing of their perihelia produces a 973-year cycle.

The orbital cycles are clearly recognizable in the global mean temperature anomalies shown below. These include the high-frequency component caused by the Jupiter-Saturn lap cycle with very similar effects to the phasing of the sun and the moon causing high and low tides on Earth twice per day.

The ~20-year J-S cycle begins at 1881/82; the ~60-year cycle starts at the same time. The coolest year of the 20th century was 1909 when Uranus and Neptune were on opposite sides of the sun; Uranus lapped Neptune on the same side of the sun in 1993. What is shown after 2000 I’ll get to later.

This RSS graph you’ve referred me to shows the same for the last 40 years, with orbital effects clearly visible if you know how to recognize these. putting a trend line through these is not going to tell anything.

After studying climate change since 2007 and finding that anthropogenic CO2 emissions were to little to have a climatic effect my interest in astronomy encouraged me to obtain solar system ephemeris from NASA in 2013. Armed with Kepler's and Newton’s Laws I began to examine the phasing of the orbits of Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune. I recognised from Keppler’s 1st and 2nd laws that one can compare the shapes of successive orbits based on differences in their perihelion distances from the sun. Extracting and plotting these from the year 1 - 2099 gave me the results shown here.

Seeing it blew my mind. Not only because the plots showed how these four outer planets interacted gravitationally to change the shapes of each other’s orbits, during colder times on Earth the amplitudes in Jupiter’s orbits were the greatest and during warmer times they were the lowest. This turns out to be a 973-year cycle that matches the RWP, the MWP, and what I call the current IWP. Saturn’s orbits to the opposite. The orbits of Uranus and Neptune follow a similar pattern but much further apart.

The next step was to stretch the plots to see what was happening in greater detail.

This plot shows how Jupiter’s orbits kind of rollover due to Saturn’s orbits. Their masses ate 318 E-mass for Jupiter vs 95 E-mass for Saturn. Earth’s temperatures peak inversely to Saturn’s perihelion distances. The question is how it all happens.

Here is my further plot of the zonal temperature anomalies obtained from NASA and plotted in the same frame to get the same vertical stretch and separated by + and -1.0 to be able to tell the difference. The above GLOTI was plotted at the same scale about the zero line.

The plots show that most of the ‘climate change’ is taking place at the poles, not where most of humanity lives, closer to the equator and where most of the CO2 emissions are. And the Arctic and Antarctic plots give clear evidence of a cycle that conforms to the 84-year orbital period of Uranus, with opposite effects. Anthropogenic CO2 emissions cannot do that. 1930 had the coldest time in Antartica, which was one of the years that Earth missed out on lapping Jupiter.

Anomalously, there is a consistent rising trend since about 1968 in all traces except the Southern Ocean and Antarctica. The trend must be artificial because CO2 cannot radiate back to the surface from which the LIR comes to back warm it and, surface LIR declines with latitude. It shows that the continuing rising trend relates to the introduction and processing of satellite data.

Next, I examined whether the time of the year that Earth laps one of the outer planets had something to do with it. For that, I gave each week a value between 0 and 13, starting with the equinoxes on 0 and ending with the solstices on 12 or 13, which, currently are about one week before perihelion to aphelion.

The colours are the same as before, Jupiter in Red, Saturn in green, Uranus in purple, and Neptune in blue. To get rid of any fake influences I combined that with the difference between the Arctic and Antarctic plot values. It shows quite clearly that the phasing of Earth’s orbits

This shows quite clearly that Earth’s temperatures are fully controlled by the solar system and that radiative forcing by GHGs is utter nonsense. The plot shows that the mechanism for change is variation in Earth’s vertical motion of 13 solar diameters above and below to the plane of the solar equator each year.

The system is complex, but my guess is that gyroscopic effects caused by Jupiter and Saturn varying Earth’s orbital speed and the speed of its rotation through conservation of angular momentum play an important role.

This LOD graph from 1962–2018 from Wikipedia shows inverse correlation with temperatures and with Saturn’s perihelion distances. If you want to check out the alignments you can download the Solar Simulator 2 free of charge.

Noted Articles #42

25 bullet points proving CO2 does not cause global warming
Ice Age Environments
Who's afraid of a cascading blackout ? ( S. Australia )
NASA hides page saying Sun is primary driver of climate
USDA suppression of climate science is a free expression issue
The IPCC does not conduct its own research
A Reappraisal of Vaccines : Dr. Richard Moskowitz
Vaxxed vs. Unvaxxed ; who is sicker ? Mawson Study

What is going on in Hong Kong protest?

 What  is going on in Hong Kong protest? I am from Mainland China. Our  government says it is a riot and protesters are trying to split Hong  Kong from the Mainland. I really doubt if the statement is true.

Him Shun Yu, lived in Hong KongAnswered Aug 13 

Basically, in short bullet point form:

  • Asshole kills girlfriend in Taiwan, makes it back to HK before Taiwanese authorities can catch him.
  • Asshole admits to crime after being arrested for credit card fraud.
  • HKSAR  Gov. can’t do anything to punish him for murder as the crime itself  wasn’t in HK. Crimes must be committed in HK to be persecuted under HK  basic law.
  • Solution: extradition bill. As Taiwan is part of  China per both the ROC and the PRC, Mainland China has to be included in  the bill.
  • Government tries to ram the bill through the Legco without consulting the Pan-Dems who can and did deadlock it.
  • Pan-Dems rally the people against it because of legitimate concerns about certain safeguard measures against the bill.
  • Massive protests, mostly peaceful, but some minor clashes with police.
  • More  protests. Could be called a riot at this point as some hot-headed  idiots do fight the police. Also a few cases of police being  heavy-handed.
  • Legco building stormed, looted and vandalized. Police don’t stop them to avoid being deemed heavy-handed.
Read more...Collapse )

Alan Tomalty September 16, 2018 at 2:44 am

It seems we have been invaded by a bunch of CO2 scaredycat trolls who are afraid of their own shadow. Correlation does not cause causation. BTW the PH scale is logarithmic and the oceans have dropped from 8.2 to 8.1 7.0 is where you get to acid. Based on the rate of drop it will take 8400 years to get to the 7.0 level . If you want to ban the 1.5 billion cows, I suggest you take that idea up with the IPCC. They seem to want to ban everything. However methane i residence time is 12 years but since it is parts per billion it is not quite the player that water vapour is.

Read more...Collapse )

Expose the EU’s Link to Slavery in Libya


Joanna Ewart-James  Freedom United

You’ve seen the news in Libya. Enough is enough. We’ve got to act now.
 

53 migrants and refugees dead in an airstrike.[1]
 

Black Africans being sold off for forced labor.[2]
 

Detainees being forced to take up arms in the Libyan civil war.[3]
 

The world was shocked when news of slave markets in Libya broke two  years ago, but since then cases of modern slavery in Libya have evolved  considerably.
 

And they are all linked back to migrant detention centers and the money and power fueling their existence.
 

Now is the time to expose the EU’s complicity in abuses and put pressure on EU member states to act! With  generous funding from the European Union, the Libyan Coastguard has  been intercepting boats in the Mediterranean Sea, taking them back to  Libya and locking up innocent refugees and migrants in detention  centers.
 

And last month, the deadly airstrike on the Tajoura detention center in  Tripoli revealed that these facilities are now targets in Libya’s  ongoing conflict and no place for refugees to stay.
 

With conditions deteriorating, it is urgent that EU member states step  up and put humanity first. Racist, xenophobic immigration policies  coupled with funding for the Libyan Coastguard are fueling modern  slavery in Libya.
 

Tell the EU it can no longer be complicit in such grave human rights violations.
 

In solidarity,
 

Joanna and the Freedom United team
 

Read more...Collapse )

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Mike Neville
Mike Neville, Been legally moving goods across borders for 4 decades

Will China stop buying oil from the United States?

The United States declared war on China. A trade war but still a war.

China takes war seriously.

As soon as China can line up a more reliable source of every single thing they buy from the USA, they will stop buying American goods and services.

You don’t have to be an economic or military genius to know you don’t buy from your enemy if you can help it.

While Trump wants to wrap all this up before the next American election China is planning how to screw Trumps great grand children.

Yes they will stop buying oil when they can. Just as they have cut all agriculture purchases, sea food, bourbon, pork.

They will also stop vacationing in the USA. Chinese tourism is (was) a 20 billion dollar industry. Do you think Disney land is full of Americans?

And when China has lined up new supply chains why would they switch back once the war is over? I worked all my life dealing with supply chains and international trade, I know how hard they are to set up properly. and I know how hard it is to make changes. Once you have a good supply line you don’t screw with it.

Stephanie Smith
Stephanie Smith, Council on Foreign Relations

I think China is just sick of Trump's stupid games. Its like someone in your restaurant complaining so much about their food you just tell them to get out. If you don't like my food, just leave.

China is the largest and fastest growing middle class in the world. 1.4B hungry people. US is a major agri food producer. But hardly the only one. Pretty stupid to cut yourself off from the biggest food customer in the world. Other food producers in other countries are now receiving record profits they can use to further expand their production.

The real stupidity is, USA should want a prosperous China, because it would buy more and pay more for US produce.

Otherwise who are we going to sell our produce to? South America? India? Middle East? Africa? They don't have China's prosperity, so the prices they will pay is much lower.

Bob MacKenzie
Bob MacKenzie, former Business Owner and Manager. at Private Business Self Employed Thinker (1973-2019)

If Meng Wanzhou is extradited to the US for trial it will be a compete failure of the Canadian justice system. It will also show the rest of the world that Canada and its administration is nothing but a weak little vassal of the US. Canada in name only.

It may invite anti-government sentiment all over the world. It could have a destabilizing effect on both Canada and the US.

It will develop a more cooperative sentiment toward China as a more stable and trustworthy trade partner though. China will benefit from this bit of US administration lunacy.

What right does the US have in holding her or anybody responsible for refusing to abide by arbitrarily applied self serving US sanctions.

China and its citizens are not controlled by US hegemonic domination, They have sovereign rights that must be respected by all governments even ones as arrogant as the US has in the form of Trump, Bolton and Pompeo. How did a country as capable as the US is ever wind up with these three stumble bums in a position to create WWIII.

Canada needs to be the oil on the water here and do the right thing.

Let Meng Wanzhou go about her business in peace.
............................................................................................................................................................................................
When Afghanistan did not release Saudi prince bin Laden without being provided legal papers regarding charges, the US invaded. The US does not have a history of being 'reasonable'. Any who doubt that need only check out the American Servicemembers Protection Act of 2002, where arrangements are made to release US war criminal suspects from confinement in the Hague at the International Criminal Court in Brussels....by force. To say this could get messy is British understatement.  oldephartte

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